The Indian stock market is set for a reshuffle as the Nifty Indices undergo their quarterly and semi-annual adjustments on June 27, 2025. According to the latest report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, significant inflows and outflows are projected across various indices, including broader indices like Nifty 50, Next 50, Nifty Bank, CPSE, Midcap 150, and Smallcap 250, along with strategic indices like NSE Momentum 30, NSE 500 Momentum 50, and NSE Mid 150 Momentum 50.
The report highlights the cumulative top flows expected due to this rejig. Leading the inflows is ICICI Bank, which is projected to witness an estimated inflow of USD 138 million, involving around 8.6 million shares. This is followed by NTPC with USD 126 million and 32.8 million shares, and Kotak Mahindra Bank with USD 112 million and 7.7 million shares. Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Life, and HDFC Bank are also among the top beneficiaries, expected to attract inflows ranging from USD 70 million to USD 91 million.
Specifically, Bajaj Finance is estimated to receive USD 91 million in flows, translating to 0.7 million shares. Bajaj Finserv follows with USD 86 million, HDFC Life with USD 75 million, and HDFC Bank with USD 72 million. The State Bank of India is another major name on the list, with an expected USD 66 million in flows. Indigo Airlines is estimated to gain USD 62 million in inflows, while Mphasis and Max Healthcare are projected to see inflows of USD 59 million and USD 54 million respectively. Other stocks likely to benefit include Solar Industries (USD 49 million), Cholamandalam Investment (USD 43 million), Hyundai Motor India (USD 38 million), JK Cement (USD 30 million), Bharti Hexacom (USD 6 million), and UPL (USD 5 million).
On the other hand, the report identifies a number of stocks that are expected to witness major outflows. Leading the list is Bharat Electronics (BEL), which may see an outflow of USD 85 million, representing about 18.1 million shares. Mahindra & Mahindra and Eterna are projected to see outflows of USD 81 million and USD 65 million respectively. Sun Pharma and Tech Mahindra are also set to witness significant selling pressure, with outflows of USD 62 million and USD 60 million.
Other companies expected to face outflows include HCLTech (USD 55 million), Hindustan Aeronautics (USD 50 million), Trent (USD 48 million), and Polycab India (USD 47 million). Federal Bank and Info Edge may see outflows of USD 45 million and USD 44 million respectively. The list also includes companies like Nazara Technologies (USD 41 million), Lupin (USD 36 million), CanBK (USD 33 million), PNB (USD 32 million), Reliance Industries (USD 11 million), and AU Small Finance Bank (USD 6 million).
These projected flows are based on estimated changes in index constituents, and the rebalancing will take effect after market close on June 27, 2025. The flows have been calculated on a best-effort basis, factoring in index weights and average daily trading volumes. The impact of these changes could be significant for traders and institutional investors, particularly those tracking passive funds and strategic investment portfolios aligned with the indices mentioned.
This rejig comes as part of the regular review of index constituents, reflecting evolving market dynamics and stock performances. It presents both opportunities and risks, depending on the positioning of investors across the impacted securities. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and factor in these expected flows when planning their strategies in the coming days.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this blog is based on publicly available research from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. All estimates regarding flows are on a best-effort basis and may vary in actual execution. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
