Tata Motors has been at the center of analyst attention following the release of its fourth-quarter results and emerging global trade dynamics. With varying views from leading brokerage firms, investors are keeping a close watch on how the stock will fare in the coming months.
Jefferies has maintained its Underperform rating on Tata Motors, albeit with a slight upward revision in the target price to Rs 630 from Rs 625. The brokerage highlighted that Tata Motors' 4Q EBITDA fell 2% year-on-year, though it was still 4% above their estimates. A major concern flagged by Jefferies is the outlook for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which they believe is facing a tough year ahead. This is due to multiple challenges including US tariffs, increasing competition in the Chinese market, and rising customer acquisition costs. Reflecting these concerns, Jefferies cut their FY26-27E EBITDA estimates by 8%, although they raised EPS forecasts by 3-4%, likely due to efficiency gains or cost management.
On the other end of the spectrum, CLSA has maintained a Buy rating and raised its target price from Rs 765 to Rs 805. The brokerage expressed confidence in Tata Motors, noting that JLR delivered on its FY25 guidance, achieving an EBIT margin of 8.5%, becoming net cash positive to the tune of £0.3 billion, and generating free cash flow (FCF) of £1.5 billion. However, even CLSA remains cautious on demand for FY26, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and trade-related challenges.
Interestingly, CLSA recently added Tata Motors back into its India Global Portfolio. But later It removed the stock in April following the announcement of 25% US tariffs on auto imports. However, the landscape has shifted again with the recent news of a US-UK trade deal that lowers tariffs on JLR vehicles to 10%. It remains to be seen how CLSA adjusts its stance in response to these changing dynamics.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has adopted a more balanced view by maintaining a Neutral rating. However, it has raised its target price significantly from Rs 610 to Rs 690, signaling a modest improvement in its outlook.
Macquarie stands among the more bullish brokerages, maintaining an Outperform rating with an aggressive target price of Rs 826. This reflects strong confidence in Tata Motors' operational performance and long-term potential.
Overall, the brokerage commentary on Tata Motors reflects a complex picture. While operational results and financial health are showing signs of improvement, global headwinds—particularly around trade and geopolitical factors—continue to cloud the outlook.
