Where will the Indian stock market be in the next 5 or 10 years? This is a question that every investor, especially those with long-term exposure, is eager to know. Recently, Ramdeo Agrawal, Chairman and Co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, made a bold prediction regarding the future of the Indian stock market. With over 45 years of experience and a reputation for accuracy in market forecasts, his latest outlook carries significant weight.
According to Ramdeo Agrawal, the Sensex could reach 1.5 lakh by 2030 and touch 3 lakh by 2035. He bases this forecast on India’s expected GDP growth, the power of compounding, and historical market data. For investors who believe in long-term wealth creation, this prediction is more than optimistic—it’s potentially transformational.
Explaining his rationale, Agrawal pointed out that the Sensex has historically doubled every five years. In 1980, it was at just 100 points. Today, it has crossed the 80,000 mark. That’s an 800x return in 45 years, translating to an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 16%. If the same trend continues, then from 2025 to 2030, Sensex could rise from 80,000 to 1.5 lakh, and from 2030 to 2035, it could double again to reach 3 lakh.
This isn’t a random guess. Agrawal highlights India’s 12–13% nominal GDP growth combined with 15% compounded corporate profit growth as the key factors supporting this projection. Additionally, he discusses India’s evolving role in the global economy. In 1995, the world economy was worth $25 trillion; today, it stands at $115 trillion. By 2040, it is expected to hit $250 trillion—and India’s contribution could be around $10 trillion, thanks to reforms and increasing self-sufficiency in key areas like food security and foreign reserves.
To underline the power of compounding, Agrawal gave the example of Reliance Industries. In 2003–2004, the company had a valuation of just a few hundred crores. Today, it has become a multi-lakh crore giant. This transformation, he says, is the “magic of compounding,” which has the potential to turn small investments into massive wealth over time. He added that by 2035, the Indian stock market may evolve to a point where it is nearly unrecognizable from today.
Agrawal also identified four mega themes that could shape the next decade of investing in India. The first is Quick Commerce, which he believes could become a $1 trillion market, led by companies like Zomato, Swiggy, and Blinkit. The second theme is a boom in capital markets, driven by rising financial savings, upcoming IPOs like that of the NSE, and strong performance from brokerage firms. The third theme is Energy Transition—where renewable energy companies that were once near bankruptcy are now becoming multibagger stocks. The fourth theme is Manufacturing, supported by the government’s PLI scheme and Make in India initiative, which has sparked a nationwide industrial revolution that started in Gujarat.
Agrawal also highlighted the growing dominance of domestic investors. He noted that since 2020, domestic retail investors have started pouring massive amounts of capital into the markets, contributing around $50–100 billion in flows every year. While foreign institutional investors (FIIs) now hold only 17% of market share, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors combined have reached 33%. He believes that by 2047, promoter holdings may reduce to just 5–10%, which is a sign of a mature and developed economy.
If Agrawal’s forecast comes true, the Indian stock market could become a golden opportunity for wealth creation. However, he reminds investors that the magic of compounding only works if you stay invested for the long term. Today’s investments could turn into tomorrow’s fortune, and if chosen wisely, your portfolio might even contain the next Reliance.
Still, it’s crucial to remember that this projection, while data-based and logical, is not a guarantee. Every investor must make decisions carefully. This article is shared solely for informational purposes and should not be seen as financial advice. Before investing, it’s essential to consult your financial advisor, because your capital’s safety is your responsibility.
Disclaimer:This blog post is for informational purposes only. The projections and opinions shared are based on the views of Ramdeo Agrawal and do not constitute investment advice. Please consult your certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Markets are subject to risks, and past performance is not indicative of future returns. The responsibility for financial decisions lies solely with the investor.
